#196 Political Polls

#196 Blogpost – Wednesday 25 October 2023

 http://dennyhatch.blogspot.com/2023/10/196-political-polls.html

Posted by Denny Hatch

 

Direct Marketers vs. Political Pollsters:

Why We Are a Lot Savvier Than They Are.

 

Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com, America’s Most Trusted Pollster.
       Chart Right Published: 7:05 P.M. Election Eve, 7 November 20016.

  

Nate Silver made his bones as a statistician and baseball analyst who allegedly once made $400,000 over a three-year period playing online poker. Founder and editor-in-chief of the polling organization fivethirtyeight.com, Silver was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential people by Time after he successfully predicted the outcomes in forty-nine of the fifty states in the 2008 election. Subsequently his forecasting system predicted the outcomes of the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy.

 

Nate Silver Blew It Big Time in 2016 When He Predicted
Hillary Clinton would Cream Donald Trump 71% to 28%.

Being a political junkie for over 50 years, like the majority of Americans I was stunned everybody got it all so very wrong.

 

Same Thing 76 Years Ago in the 1948 Election.

—Photo: W. Eugene Smith. LIFE Magazine.

Quick Backstory of This Extraordinary Photo — One of
The Most Famous Journalistic Gaffes in American History.

In the summer of the 1948 election President Harry Truman had a sad-sack 36% approval rating. Throughout the summer the Gallup and Roper polls declared Truman’s opponent, Thomas E. Dewey, was an absolute shoo-in guaranteed to win the election. In the last two months of the campaign Truman virtually disappeared from public view. He was on a whistle-stop trip on a private train where he could be seen and talk in person directly to the American people from the back of his train. Some real early mornings he'd be in his pajamas, robe and slippers and talk to a handful of voters. At the huge Iowa State Fair in September he roared over the public address system to mesmerize an audience of 72,000. In those final two months of the campaign Truman crisscrossed the country over 31,000 miles and made 352 speeches. All media coverage was local. The pollsters never caught the shifts in public opinion. Robert R. McCormick, owner of the Chicago Tribune insisted on being first to announce Truman’s defeat starting with the earliest edition of paper.

 

What triggered this blog post are some current projections about the 2024 elections coming up twelve months hence.

  

The Total Incompetence of College Student Pollsters

May Show Up Yet Again on the Same Error-Strewn Path.

  

 

 This Marquette Law Students’ poll of “690 Likely Voters” is  a teensy-weensy microscopic sample out of a humongous universe of 168.42 million Registered American Voters. Preposterous!

What’s more, The above illustration is a large slide with full color photographs, big headlines and a small muddy caption at bottom. It was shown for a few seconds full sized on network and local TV news programs along with a bunch of other pollsters’ projections.

 

These sample numbers are disguised in the small line at bottom printed in blurry medium blue mouse type printed over a light blue background. It is guaranteed to be overlooked by virtually all TV viewers. I missed it clean and noticed it only after I photographed the slide for this blog post. The numbers:

About Amorphous Political Polls vs. the
Hard Data of Direct Marketers’ Tests

Political pollsters are mining the mushy world of “Who would you vote for if the election were held today?” The answer is in the slippery world of emotions, of “if” and “how do you feel right now?”

When launching a new product, service or financial opportunity direct marketers rent lists of buyers or subscribers or members of analogous products and services. Or we advertise in media our potential buyers read and view.

 

Below is the order card for INTERNATIONAL LIVING, a publication that did not exist. After three failures and $70,000 in debt, young copywriter Bill Bonner sent out a “dry test” mailing with a powerful 8-page letter describing how you can retire overseas in luxury for a fraction of what it would cost in the U.S. The dry test mailing pulled 300% of breakeven and Bonner was in business. Today he is owner of The Agora, a billion-dollar publishing empire out of Baltimore, Maryland.

This offer was the real deal — NOT a weak and wifty, “if this newsletter existed do you think you might buy it?” This was offering a solid commitment from Bonner to the recipient urging a change in behavior that will be very beneficial. (And not change his mind tomorrow.)

 

 

• We start with a series of small tests. Then follow up with medium size confirming tests. We track results every step of the way.

 

An Example of Some Basic Direct Marketing Arithmetic.
I got into direct mail marketing in the 1970s, the formula was primitive and simple. The minimum test was 5,000 names. Way back then the average response to a direct mail campaign was 2%. A two percent response from 5,000 names is 100 orders — the absolute minimum cell size of paying customers just large enough to be statistically dependable.

 

Direct marketing brings immediate results that you can take to the bank — literally. The success or failure is measured precisely by test results and money, promised or sent. If a test bombed, you sweetened the offer or tested different pricing until you got it right.

 

In 1984 Peggy and I started the monthly WHO’S MAILING WHAT! newsletter and archive service. It was a publication that existed in our heads only. We did a “dry test” offering this mythical publication. We rented 5,000 names from Pete Hoke’s Direct Marketing magazine and 5,000 from Adrian Courtenay’s DM NEWS for a total of 10,000 names. Our offer: 

Take the first issue FREE and the next twelve issues for $99. Cancel any time and receive a full refund no questions asked. No risk. We got 452 responses and became publishers.

 

In Political Polling, No Interim Results.

Unlike direct marketers, political pollsters have to wait till the very end of the campaign when the polls close and the votes are all in and counted before they know for sure whether they are champs or chumps. 

 

 

These are the Amateur Collegiate Political Pollsters Who Are
Poaching In the Worlds of Fox News, CNN and Five Thirtyeight

Emerson College, Boston, MA

Iowa State Civiq (News Service), Ames, IA

Marquette College Law School, Milwaukee, WI

Quinnipiac University, Hamden, Ct

Winthrop University, Rock Hill, SC

 

My personal opinion these minor colleges and universities are in the political polling business for publicity and public relations. Any coverage in state and national media (e.g., the Marquette Law School poll shown in this post) may well be noticed by wealthy alumni who take pride seeing their beloved alma mater in the forefront of the news. Maybe they'll increase their giving. Plus it gets minor colleges' names out to prospective students interested in political science.

 

Here's another cheapsy-weepsy political poll I photographed off the TV.

NOTE: “Among 868 Registered Voters.”

 

Takeaways to Consider

• Any time I see a national or state political poll, I now look for the size of the sample it was based on.

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#195 Rolex

http://dennyhatch.blogspot.com/2023/09/195-rolex_19.html

 

 #195 Blog Post - Tuesday, 19 September 2023

 Posted by Denny Hatch

 

The Ultimate Challenge for a Copywriter:
Inventing a Reason to Buy a $41,990 Rolex.

(NOTE: At the end of this blog post you're invited attend the Phillips Auction of Paul Newman's $17.8 Million Rolex on YouTube. It's a hoot!)

Personal Backgrounder: For many years I have owned two serviceable/disposable wristwatches. Both are Casio F-91W models that cost me around $14.00 each. They are light, thin and unobtrusive. They keep accurate time, have plastic rubber-like wrist bands and are easy to set and reset. They have a tiny alarm that (very) quietly beeps twice on the hour. Why two watches? When a long-lived battery dies or I lose one of these cheap Casios, I have a spare. Whereupon I immediately buy a replacement, so I always have a back-up. 

• Do I hanker to have a Rolex? Uh-uh. All I want is the time of day, date and time. My cheap-o $14 Casio F-91W is more accurate than any five-figure Rolex. No kidding.

                  From Their Respective Websites
              Rolex:   Accuracy:  +/- 2-1/2 seconds per day.
              Casio:   Accuracy: +/-  15-20 second per month.

 

BTW: What Determines Wristwatch Prices?  "Complications!"
"Watches are complicated. No, seriously, some watches are literally complicated. To the unversed: this is a little horological joke. In the watch world, the term “complication” refers to any function other than basic timekeeping. An alarm, a second time zone, or even just a date, are all complications."
—Jennifer Algoo, Visuals Director, Harper’s BAZAAR

 

What Triggered This Unusual Blog Post: Tennis, Carlos & Rolex.
A couple of years ago, Peggy and I stumbled on the tennis wizardry of Carlos Alcaraz, the young (then age 18, now 20) Spanish phenom. We have closely followed him ever since; we seldom miss a match. Carlitos (as his devoted fans call him) is the master of high drama, accuracy and trickery. He has two drop-dead specialties that stun his opponents and fans:

• His feather-soft dink or drop shot that suddenly ends a fierce long rally.

• The amazing "tweener," where he chases down a lob over his head to the far end of the court and blindly hits the ball backward between his legs with a pinpoint accurate return lob followed by a wild whoop of the crowd and the announcers. (You can see a YouTube Alcaraz "tweener" at the end of this blog post.)

 

Above all — winning or losing — is the joy, explosive energy and infectious delight Alcaraz exhibits every moment he is on the court. He loves his opponents. He loves the crowd and the crowds adore him. This past July he won the 2023 Wimbledon Grand Slam and is currently ranked #1 or #2 in the world, seesawing back and forth with Serbia's Novak Djokovic. We started following him on the Tennis Channel and ESPN and have become incurable groupies.  

 

The Rolex Connection.
Along with our fascination with Alcaraz, this marketing junkie — a.k.a. Denny Hatch — has become intrigued by the dominance of Rolex watches in the tennis world. E.g., on ATP (Association of Tennis Professionals) championship court scoreboards across the globe, plus myriad photos of top tennis professionals wearing a Rolex watch. 

 

Carlos Alcaraz Can Potentially Earn $8 Million per Year with
His Rolex Deal Following in the Footsteps of Roger Federer.

 

“The ‘Swiss Maestro’ Roger Federer, who is regarded as one of the most decorated brand ambassadors for Rolex signed his first 10-year $15 million deal with the Swiss watchmaking company in 2006 and was ultimately upgraded with a whopping $8 million annual deal in 2016.

“In January 2022 Carlos Alcaraz was signed by Rolex and joined the likes of Roger Federer and Jack Sinner. What this means for the Spaniard is that if he can keep up his impressive performance and elevate his career statistics, Rolex might potentially renew and offer him a deal even sweeter than Roger’s.”
—Aarav Singh Gill, Sportsmanor.com

A Quickie History of Rolex.
"Originally founded in 1905 in London by 24-year-old Hans Wilsdorf and his brother-in-law Alfred Davis, Rolex was first known as Wilsdorf & Davis. They originally imported movements, housed them in British cases, and sold them to jewelers. Through this, the pair saw the potential for developing their own brand. In 1908 this was realized when Wilsdorf secured the name Rolex."  —thewatchbox.com.

Since founding, Rolex has acquired more than 500 different patents and the company's 2000 employee/watchmakers produce 8 types of classic watches for men — mostly by hand — as well as ladies’ watches. Prices run from $3,000 to (Daytona Oyster Reference 6263) $227,481.

 Rolex Is the Main Sponsor of World Tennis.
"Rolex and tennis first came together when the brand partnered with the Wimbledon Championships in 1978 when tennis was experiencing a powerful transformation. The brand gradually forged links with all of the sport’s elite competitions. Rolex now partners the four Grand Slam tournaments, all the major Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) events in the men’s and women’s game and the leading international team contests."  —Rolex.com

In addition to tennis, Rolex has become a preeminent force in the sponsorship of other high-profile sporting events and individual athletes. The result is an avalanche of worldwide awareness of Rolex in print media, online and TV. Among them:

• Motor Sports: Rolex Daytona 24; Le Mans 24 Hours; FIA World Endurance; In addition, according to Forbes, Rolex pays an annual $50 million fee to Formula 1 in order for their logo to be plastered on cars, advertising boards at motor race tracks and drivers' outerwear.

• Automotive Classic Events: Rolex Monterey Motorsports Reunion; Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance^®; Goodwood Revival.

• Yachting: Rolex partners some of the top crewed offshore races. The brand is associated with numerous annual and biannual coastal regattas all over the world. It is Official Timepiece for two such championships that are at the cutting edge of nautical technology: SailGP, featuring the planet’s fastest catamarans, and the 52 SUPER SERIES for high-performance TP52 monohulls. Rolex also partners prestigious offshore races, such as the Rolex Fastnet Race, the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race and the Rolex Middle Sea Race.

• Golf: Rolex partners with the R&A (Royal and Ancient) held at St. Andrews and the USGA Masters Tournament at Augusta in April; the PGA Championship in May; U.S. Open in June; British Open in July. Plus Rolex support extends to all five Majors in women’s golf.

 • Olympic Equestrian events: show jumping, dressage, other events.

 

Like the ladies and gent above, you’d like to show off your $60,000 Rolex. More to the point Rolex desperately wants you to show it off. It’s gorgeous... famous... a conversation starter. Alas it’s on your wrist and often buried under your jacket sleeve and/or shirt cuff. Rolex realizes they have a problem and provides guidance on the website.

The Official Way to Show off Your Rolex

 

Rosser Reeves (1910-1984)

Chairman, Ted Bates Advertising Agency

 

 

  Rosser Reeves Conceived the "Unique Selling Proposition."

– Each ad must make a proposition: “Buy this product and you get these benefits."

– The proposition must be unique: something that your competitors do not, cannot or will not offer.

– The proposition must sell: it must be something prospects really want; it pulls them over to your product

 

Memorable USPs—Unique Selling Propositions.

“99 and 44/100% pure.” —Ivory Soap (Procter & Gamble, 1892)

“The skin you love to touch.” —Woodbury Soap (J. Walter Thompson Co. 1911)

“When it rains it pours.” —Morton Salt (N.W. Ayer & Son, 1912)

“We’ll leave the light on for you.” —Motel 6 (Richards Group 1988)

“Bags Fly Free.” —Southwest Airlines (GSD&M, 2010)

 

About Rolex and Its Non-Existent USP.
• More than a dozen up-up-up-market watch companies manufacture spectacular timepieces — all with myriad unique complications that sell for five- and six figures. Among them: Cartier - Hermès - Van Cleef & Arpels – Panerai – Grand Seiko – Patek Phillipe - Tag Heuer.  

 

• All are exquisite masterpieces of the watchmaker’s art — beautifully crafted, many bejeweled (especially women’s models), with seemingly infinite choices of "complications."

 

• However, compared to Rolex — with its 120-year history and vast worldwide recognition — other watchmakers come across as boutique operations, even though they produce fine products and are profitable.
In short, Rolex is king!

 

 

As a Result, Rolex Has Never Had a Unique Selling Proposition.
Quite simply no single watch model — or Rolex family of watches — stands out above all others in the luxury timepiece industry.  All watches are alike. They are the same wee size, tell accurate time and have myriad complications.

 

What separates Rolex from the pack are the extraordinary headliners — show biz legends, sports heroes, corporate tycoons, investors, scientists, explorers, adventurers, gamblers, jet setters, and assorted risk takers.

 

Every time Rolex owners Joe Schlub or Jane Lunchbox peek at their Rolex to see what time it is, they get a secret — almost guilty — stab of pleasure and pride of membership in the elite circle of world renowned celebrities rich-rich men and women on the record and in the media as Rolex owners. 

 

A Partial Who's Who of Rolex Celebs and High Achievers Past & Current Seen and Photographed Wearing a Rolex:

Alessandra Ambrosio, Jennifer Aniston, Cardi B, David Beckham, Victoria Beckham, James Bond, Bono, Bjorn Borg, Warren Buffet, Sandra Bullock, James Cameron, Sir Malcolm Campbell, Fidel Castro, Jacques Chirac, Winston Churchill, Eric Clapton, Daniel Craig, Tom Cruise, Ellen DeGeneres, Clint Eastwood, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Chris Evert, Roger Federer, Chiara Ferragni, Gerald Ford, Jennifer Garner, Ina Garten, Mercedes Gleitz, Ernesto Che Guevara, Robert Downy, Jr., Muammar Gaddafi, Ryan Gosling, Rachel Green, Kevin Hart, Sir Edmund Hillary, Paris Hilton, Pope John-Paul II, Lyndon Baines Johnson, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Lindsay Lohan, John F. Kennedy (gifted by Marilyn Monroe), Jean-Claude Killy, Martin Luther King, Jr., Lydia Ko, Kyle Kuzma, Bernhard Langer, Adam Levine, J-Lo, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Madonna, Steve McQueen, Paul Newman, Neymar, Jack Nicklaus, Anna Nordqvist, Tenzing Norgay, Barack Obama, Arnold Palmer, Roger Penske, Jacques Piccard, Brad Pitt, Gary Player, Elvis Presley, Jon Rahm, Emily Ratajkowsk, Ronald Reagan, Rihanna, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Nicholas Sarkozy, Adaam Scott, Will Smith, Annnika Sorenstam, Jason Statham, Jordan Spieth, Jackie Stewart, Sharon Stone, Kiri Te Kanawa, Charlize Theron, Justin Thomas, Lexi Thompson, Sofia Vergara, Lindsey Vonn,Mark Wahlberg, Tom Watson, Kanye West, Caroline Wozniacki, Reese Witherspoon, Tiger Woods, Boris Yeltsin, Alexander Zverev .

Think of it! Buy a Rolex and you can take your place among these luminaries! If you happen to meet up with one of them, you have an immediate conversational opener and shared interest to talk about. You are equals in something.

 

Maurice Chevalier on Rolex.

“Like a genial hotelier, Rolex has introduced me to some of the nicest people. I ask about their Rolex and they ask about mine. It's as marvelous a conversation piece as it is a timepiece.”

(With thanks to Bo Sacks for this mini-treasure)

In short you — the Rolex owner — are its USP! 

 

Below is an early Rolex space ad. It emphatically ain’t about the watch. It’s all about you — Rolex owner — imagining yourself mingling with world leaders.

 

 

I retyped the teensy, totally unreadable white type reversed out on a black background at bottom of this ad. Here 'tis:

When a Summit Conference is held at Geneva’s Palais des Nations, the best watch in the world is there.

     You can recognize its classic shape, carved out of a solid block of gold from the other end of the conference table.

     Inside the solid, pressure-proof walls of its Oyster case is a self-winding, officially certified chronometer movement.

     In our own building in Geneva, there is a room lined with the portraits of most of the world’s leaders.

     The Rolex they wear is the Datejust. In 18 ct. gold with matching Jubilee bracelet.

 

Remember the seven key copy drivers — the emotional hot buttons that cause people to act as articulated by Axel Andersson, Bob Hacker and yours truly:

fear - greed - guilt - anger - exclusivity - salvation - flattery 

In the immortal words of Seattle Marketing guru Bob Hacker: "If your copy isn't dripping with one or more of these, tear it up and start over."

This Rolex print ad is dripping with Exclusivity and Flattery

 

Guaranteed to Excite and Delight You: A Gallery of YouTube Fun Plus Rolex Product Owners.

(You are invited to STEAL SMART!)

 

1.          The Alcaraz "Tweener"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK_mKZb8dOY

 

2.    Phillips Auction of Paul Newman’s Rolex Daytona
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0tjSUOvi5k&t=33s

 
NOTE: Including the buyer's premium of 12.5% (the Phillips Gallery commission) added to the last bid, the final price comes to $17,752,500.)

 

3.          Academy Awards 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3TkPZPB5AE

 

4.      It Tells History
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=055u423Qc_o

 

5.  Federer, Le Mans, Equestrian, Immelmann
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN_v1IYzMSo

 

 Takeaways to Consider

• If you were to buy Paul Newman’s $17 million Daytona Rolex, this is a schematic/outline of what you own. 

 • Many Rolex owners are collectors with up to a dozen or more watches — hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on acquiring Rolex bling they show off in special exhibit cases as a kind of mini-museum.

 

• Imagine the grand works they could do — the human misery they could alleviate — with this money going to the betterment of the world.

• Their lives would have real purpose. They would be universally beloved!

• IMO: This entire business of wristwatch collecting is nuts.

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#194 Fryd DM Lesson

http://dennyhatch.blogspot.com/2023/08/194-fryd-dm-lesson.html 

 

#194 Blog Post - Wednesday 22 August 2023

 

Posted by Denny Hatch

 

The Greatest Direct Marketing Lesson
I Have Learned in the Last Sixty Years 

Quickie Preface: Mike and Susan Fryd are close friends and neighbors. A modest, shy, low-key guy, Mike quietly and offhandedly mentioned his book was being published. I immediately bought it and read it. Whereupon I was gobsmacked. I guarantee you will be also. —DH

 

Below: My Review of Mike Fryd's Stunning
Reminiscence Just Published on Amazon

A Riveting and Often Hilarious Memoir of Nazism and Motherhood.

My Mother’s War is the gripping account of growing up as the child of penniless Polish Jews who spent six years dodging capture and certain death by the Nazis. You will savor Michael Fryd’s paean to his indomitable entrepreneur mother who saved her family. Mike Fryd writes: 

“The entire business establishment was in a state of chaos; there was no organized system for the transportation and distribution of goods. There were shortages of certain commodities in one part of the country, while mountains of the same rotted next to idle railroad tracks only fifty miles away.

    “This was a perfect climate for making money on the black market. Somehow, my mother found people and trucks who helped her move merchandise from areas of surplus where she could buy them at very low prices to areas of scarcity where she could sell them at a premium. Often, our one-room apartment served as a temporary warehouse for whatever was the transaction du jour: medicines, hams, tires, furs, condoms, yes condoms. Mom brought a truckload of them from Germany and sold them at a very handsome profit to drugstores in Warsaw. Condoms were in short supply in Poland and were much needed to control venereal diseases spread by both the German and Russian armies.

    “When my mom wasn’t smuggling watches, one could always find her on the Rue des Rosiers where she indulged in her favorite profession, black marketing in foreign currency. When I wasn’t in school, I would often accompany her, reprising my old role of “Mule,” an unobvious carrier of sizable sums of illegal currency… It was an exotic and exciting bazaar where millions of dollars changed hands every minute, and a man’s word was his bond. My mom was the only woman trader, as far as I know, and I was the only child around. 

       “Many of the dealers went out of their way to teach me the tricks of the trade or just to amuse me. I learned how to count money fast, just like a banker, and how to spot a fake diamond; a drop of water beads up on a diamond, but spreads on glass or cubic zirconia.”

I Couldn’t Put the Book Down

I read it straight through the weekend. It is one of a kind —a masterpiece! As I reluctantly came to the glorious ending of this extraordinary adventure four words kept repeating themselves inside my head: Movie. Spielberg. Academy Awards. —Denny Hatch

 

Michael Fryd

 

From Mike Fryd’s Preface

“While writing I realized the heart of the story was my larger-than-life mother, Evelyn Fryd. We survived against all odds because the Nazis and Polish anti-Semites were no match for her. During those years she was a mythic figure with boundless energy and cunning, determined to do whatever it took to save her family from Hitler’s clutches.” 

 

In the Mayhem and Horror of World War II, in Poland,
Evelyn Fryd Morphed into World Class Direct Marketer

For starters, she was constantly aware of — and practiced — the five-letter credo that describes exactly what we direct marketers do:

“Create wants and change behavior.”

 

To achieve these goals, direct marketers are perpetually challenged and are forced to learn lots of new stuff every day. It's a fascinating career!

• Exactly who are our buyers or clients?

• How and where do we find more of them?

• The challenge is to get inside their heads and walk in their shoes so we can think how they think, feel what they feel, and know and become them. Talk to them. Make their lives better. Like us lots. And want to hear from us often.

 

What Does the Mike Fryd’s Mother in World War II
Have to Do with Direct Marketing Today? Everything!

A serial entrepreneur, she was on a perpetual learning curve — continually studying about businesses, products and services and how to buy them, market them and make customers happy. She was also a world class student of people — always able to see into their inner selves, their wants, their needs, their fears, greed, guilt, anger and desire for exclusivity. In all her transactions she provided salvation and exuded flattery. Everybody loved her!

 

In short, Evelyn was a textbook direct marketer — getting inside the heads of the people she dealt with, seeing what they saw, feeling what they felt and, in effect, becoming the person and talking directly to them. 

Comparing Evelyn Fryd to Three of the Greatest
Direct Marketing Entrepreneurs of My Lifetime

 

David Ogilvy

"He walked into a London agency and asked to see the boss. He had bought a country house and was about to open it as a hotel. Could the agency help him to get customers? He had $500 to spend. Not surprisingly, the head of the agency turned him over to the office boy, who happened to be the author of this book. I invested his money in penny postcards and mailed them to well-heeled people living in the neighborhood. Six weeks later the hotel opened to a full house. I had tasted blood.”
    —Confessions of an Advertising Man

 

Maxwell Sackheim

In 1926 Max was an agency copywriter who got inside the heads of book readers and came up with a unique scheme that sold tens of millions of books. Ninety-six years later it is still going strong. The main elements of the business model that persuaded members to join the club:

• Irresistible Introductory Offer (Sign up and take your choice of one, two, or three books free), no risk to have a look.

• You can acquire best-selling titles before they’re available in stores.

•  Dazzle your friends, neighbors and business associates with how much you know about what's going on in the worlds news, literature and culture.

• Special book club editions are cheaper to manufacture.

• Ergo: discount prices, big savings.

• The “Negative Option” makes it easy-peasy to build a world class library. (“Unless you tell us not to send the Main Selection (or want one or more Alternate Selections), the book will be shipped automatically.”

• If not 100% satisfied, full return privileges, no hassle, no questions asked (even if you’ve already read it).

• Bonus books. (Buy 4 club selections at terrific discount prices and get one free reward book of your choice.).

• Sackheim’s name for the club: Book-of-the-Month.

 

Bill Bonner

In 1979 stony broke and up to his ears in debt Bill mailed a dry test — an 8-page letter offering a trial subscription to INTERNATIONAL LIVING (an imaginary magazine that existed only inside his head). If he got enough orders, he would publish it.

The launch mailing package for INTERNATION LIVING did 300% of breakeven and was hugely profitable from Day 1. Today Agora Publishing is a mini conglomerate of 30 companies that bring in over $1 billion a year.

 Bill Bonner in front of the first of his two 18th century chateaux in France (just up the road from David Ogilvy's.)

A Totally Opposite Career from Direct Marketing Where a
Guy Did the Same Thing Over and Over and Over Again

Last week I turned 88. What triggered this Blog Post was this New

York Times Obituary that ran on my birthday.

 

Philip L. Sherman, Who Circumcised Thousands of Babies, Dies at 67

Armed with only a scalpel, a clamp and a metal probe, Philip L. Sherman would routinely carry out his surgical mission in about 15 seconds, leave in as little as 10 minutes and hotfoot it to his car, which was probably parked illegally but perhaps spared a ticket by the inspired placard on his windshield: “Mazel Tov! Bris in progress. Please don’t ticket.”

His record, he said, was 11 in a single day, including two pairs of twins — a considerable scheduling feat, considering that the ritual is to be performed on the eighth day of the baby’s life and during daylight.

He died on Aug. 9 at his home in Englewood, N.J. He was 67. His daughter, Nina Sherman Green, said the cause was pancreatic cancer.

Mr. Sherman, whose website (as well as his vanity license plate) was emoil.com, claimed to have performed some 26,000 ritual circumcisions, mostly in the New York metropolitan area, during his 45-year career. He was trained in the Jewish religious practice of brit milah — a profession generally spelled “mohel” in English and pronounced “moil.”

His services did not come cheap. “You pay $800 for a steady hand and a good reputation,” Scott Stringer, the former New York City comptroller, told The Times after his son, who was born in December 2011, was circumcised by Mr. Sherman. “It’s not the kind of thing where you’re looking to save money.”

But Mr. Sherman said he did not turn away families who could not afford his fee.

He also served as a cantor at several synagogues in New York, including the Spanish and Portuguese Synagogue in Manhattan from 1985 to 2019. He also occasionally worked as an actor.

Yes, he acknowledged, of course the baby feels pain during it. But, he added, “when it’s done properly, only for a moment.”

And, yes, he said, it was also true that sometimes even just by imagining the removal of the baby’s foreskin, one of the parents or a guest might pass out. But, he suggested cheerfully, “usually at a bris, there’s no shortage of doctors or lawyers.”

Excerpted from Sam Roberts' splendid tongue-in-cheek obit, August 15, 2023
Photo credit: Fred R. Conrad, The New York Times

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