Tuesday, October 29, 2019

#73 Political Polls v. Direct Mail Tests


Posted by Denny Hatch

Political Polls v. Direct Mail Tests:
 Utter Drivel v. Absolute Precision


Part I of our “How the Press Failed You” Series…
“The entire 2016 campaign season was been characterized by a series of spectacular Silver blunders. Not only did he notoriously give Hillary Clinton a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary (she lost), and bungled Indiana as well, but he spent much of the past 18 months emitting a series of embarrassing declarations as well as ludicrous prophecies that totally failed to materialize. 
—Nathan J. Robinson, Current Affairs, December 29, 2016

On Monday, November 7, 2016, polling wunderkind Nate Silver, age 38, was in orbit as the modern era’s most spectacular predictor of political win and losses.
     On the following day, Tuesday, November 8th, against all odds and predictions, Donald Trump was crowned President of the United States.
     The voters shot Nate Silver out of orbit and he became a meteorite crashing into Earth creating a mile-wide crater.
     In short, overnight Silver went from champ to chump.


My Opinion: Nate Silver and Vladimir Putin’s
 Meddling Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency
For me, Hillary Clinton was not a likeable candidate. She came across as a smug, strident elitist who didn’t bother to visit key states. Because Nate Silver gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning, it was an excuse for many voters—who could not stand either candidate—to simply stay home. It was Putin who iced Trump’s crumby, crummy cake.

What Political Pollsters Can Learn from Direct Marketers
Political polling and direct mail testing are basically one in the same.
     You contact a small representative sample of like-minded people on a big list.
     From the responses, presumably you can project the winner of an election—or the number of orders you will receive on the roll-out of a direct marketing offer.
     But, there’s a huge difference.

The Precision of Direct Mail Testing
 Eric Utne

The year was 1984. East West Journal editor Eric Utne had an idea for a new magazine. He had two choices.
1.   He could spend a fortune—$1,000,000.00 or more—to rent office space, hire staff, start publishing UTNE READER and try to sell issues by mail and on newsstands.

2.   Spend $150,000 to hire the brilliant copywriting/design team of Bill Jayme and Heikki Ratalahti to create a direct mail offer and send it to 5,000 names on 20 different carefully chosen lists of known readers of magazines and books.

The Dry Test
Utne opted for a “dry test”—a powerful FREE offer with a strong letter from the editor for a product or service that does not exist. It’s a lot cheaper than blowing a million bucks producing an actual magazine that might bore the hell out of readers.
     Elements of Utne's dry test mailing included: a brochure describing the features and full-color cover of the proposed premier issue, a postage-paid Business Reply Envelope, and a personal letter—yet another Jayme masterpiece.
Bill Jayme, Legendary, Direct Mail Copywriter

Here’s Jayme’s delicious lede:


Jayme’s Outside Envelope and Order Card

Note the Simple Binary Offer on the Above Order Card
Choice #1: PLEASE SEND MY FREE COPY and reserve my one-year subscription.

Choice #2: Trash the mailing.

Unlike the response to a political pollster’s question, the UTNE READER customer’s positive response was cast in concrete.
     You can take it to the bank, unlike a political survey where the responder can have second thoughts in the polling booth after a debate fiasco or an email scandal.
     Okay, with UTNE READER the publisher had no way of knowing the conversion rate—the number readers who would become paid subscribers vs. those who would find the final product to be tedious and fail to pay the invoice.
     But at least Utne had a private universe of folks who raised their hands and said they wanted to see more. 

Two Wildly Different Political Polls
Released on MSNBC the Same Morning
From The New York Times:

Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren? New
Polls Differ on Who’s Leading 2020 Race
Surveys released this week show varying, and sometimes conflicting, races unfolding nationally and in early primary states.
   A pair of new national polls present starkly different results. A CNN survey released Wednesday had former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. with a commanding lead of 15 percentage points ahead of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. But a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday had Ms. Warren as the front-runner, seven points ahead of Mr. Biden.
     A number of things can affect a poll’s results, including the wording of a horse-race question and the order that items are asked. In CNN and Fox News polls this year, respondents have typically been asked for their opinions on each of the Democratic presidential candidates, among other questions, before being queried about their vote preference. 
     In Quinnipiac’s polls — as well as those conducted by Monmouth University, which have also shown Ms. Warren climbing steadily — people have not typically been asked to evaluate the candidates one-by-one before giving their vote choice.
     If such small differences in survey structure are indeed having an effect on results, it may reflect the fact that many respondents are not yet certain about their feelings.
—Matt Stevens & Giovanni Russonello, The New York Times, 10/24/2019

It’s the Numbers, Stupid!
According to Rasmussen Reports, the total number of registered Democrats as of July 2018 across all 50 states is 44,242,975.
     That’s 44.2 million people.
     Now look at the small print at the bottom left of each of the two charts above:
Quinnipiac: Among 713 Dem Reg. Voters, Oct. 17-21 +/- 4.6 Pts.
CNN:           Among 424 Dem Reg. Voters, Oct. 17-20 +/- 5.8 Pts.

These two pollsters queried a total of 1,137 Registered Democratic voters nationwide.
     That’s a micro-minuscule 0.00003528 percent of the Democratic electorate.
     Put another way, if the above pollsters surveyed all 50 states, it means CNN talked to an average of 9 Democratic voters in each state, while Quinnipiac talked to 14 Democratic voters in each state.
     With these teeny-tiny samples of roiled Democrats involved in the most highly charged and contentious election in a generation, it’s no wonder the results are not only contradictory, but also preposterous.
     Clearly these were quickie-polls done on the cheap by organizations desperate for media coverage and recognition.
     CNN should know better.
     IMHO, Quinnipiac is a minor little University down the street from Yale—and pathetically ranked (in a tie) for #153 by US News & World Report. It has somehow achieved recognition for its PPP (Political Polling Prowess) and releases the results of its QQQ’s (Queer Quinnipiac Questionnaires) to the gullible, content-horny media for P.R., Development and Student Acquisition purposes. So they blew this one big time. Memories are short and these sad sacks will be b-a-a-c-k next week.

The Idiocy of MSNBC
In their sick need to make news, Morning Joe released these two absurd polls side-by-side on the same morning.
     NBC’s resident expert geek Steve Kornacki—who delivers his findings with all the jumping around and manic gesturing of Huey Long or Beto O’Rourke—said, in effect, “In this case we’re in the business of choosing polls rather than candidate.”
     MSNBC/NBC News and Morning Joe should be ashamed of themselves for perpetrating this obvious insanity.

Takeaways to Consider
Attention Direct Markers:
• With an 800-year history of trial and error, direct marketers have refined the business of testing down to a gnat’s eyebrow.

• Political pollsters are still in the dark ages.

• Why is the basic direct mail test 5000 names? The ballpark response to a direct mail effort is an average of 2%. Two percent of 5,000 is 100 responses. A list of 100 names is the minimum for statistical accuracy in measuring back-end results.

• Seattle Direct Marketing Wizard Bob Hacker has come up with a system of multi-variable testing that enables marketers to get down-‘n’-dirty quick results with mailings of far less than 5,000 pieces. Warning: you need a Bob Hacker working for you to pull it off.

Beware of greedy list owners who gleefully screw direct marketers.
     If you do business with the owner of 1 million names, remember this: list rental income is free money. It costs nothing to supply a tape of 5,000 names at, say, an average $125/M or a free $625. Turn your entire list of 1 million names 20 times at $125/M, that’s a yummy $2.5 million revenue. That’s supplemental income—a.k.a. free money.
     List owners segregate their lists using the R-F-M (Recency-Frequency-Monetary Value) formula. The very best names on a list are those that have bought most Recently and most Frequently and who spend the most Money. These top tier names are the ones to be coddled, promoted and loved to death. They can represent 60% of a marketer’s revenue and 80% of the profits.
     If a neophyte marketer orders 5,000 names to test a list, an unscrupulous list owner might supply 5,000 of his top-tier R-F-M names.
     The result: the newbie entrepreneur will be dazzled by the high response and will order 500,000 of that list on the roll-out. The list owner will supply 500,000 of his least profitable names that will generate vastly poorer results. 
     The list owner wins big; the entrepreneur is screwed.

• Any inexperienced entrepreneur (e.g. a retailer) getting into the direct marking arena is nuts not to hire a world-class list expert as well as top creative people.

Attention Political Reporters (and Candidates):
• When seeing new polling results in print, online or on TV, the first thing you should look for is the number of respondents.

• Only once before in recent American history has a dark- dark-dark horse presidential candidate defeated an odds-on favorite. 
     The election was 1944 when President Harry S Truman was so far down in the polls against New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey that the Gallup Organization flat-out ceased covering him.

 
      November 3, 1948. Under tight deadline, The Chicago Tribune was 
      suckered into believing the projections and went to press early, 
      only to be humiliated by this bogus headline.
If you are thinking of running for office—or are working on a political campaign—for Congress, governor or local office—Philip White’s WHISTLE STOP provides a wiring diagram for victory. What worked in 1948 will work like gangbusters today, whether your candidate is running locally, statewide or nationally.


WHISTLE STOP is delicious reading—a rip-snorting page turner you won’t be able to put down. Guaranteed!

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Word count:1742



At age 15, Denny Hatch—as a lowly apprentice—wrote his first news release for a Connecticut summer theater. To his astonishment it ran verbatim in The Middletown Press. He was instantly hooked on writing. After a two-year stint in the U.S. Army (1958-60), Denny had nine jobs in his first 12 years in business. He was fired from five of them and went on to save two businesses and start three others. One of his businesses—WHO’S MAILING WHAT! newsletter and archive service founded in 1984—revolutionized the science of how to measure the success of competitors’ direct mail. In the past 55 years he has been a book club director, magazine publisher, advertising copywriter/designer, editor, journalist and marketing consultant. He is the author of four published novels and seven books on business and marketing.

CONTACT

dennyhatch@yahoo.com

Note to Readers:  
May I send you an alert when each new blog is posted? If so, kindly give me the okay by sending your First Name, Last Name and e-mail to dennyhatch@yahoo.com. I guarantee your personal information will not be shared with anyone at any time for any reason. I look forward to being in touch!


IF YOU HAVE TROUBLE POSTING A COMMENT… Write Me!
Google owns Blogspot.com and this Comment Section. If you do not have a Google account, contact me directly and I will happily post your comment with a note that this is per your request. Thank you and do keep in touch.  dennyhatch@yahoo.com

Invitation to Marketers and Direct Marketers: 
Guest Blog Posts Are Welcome. 
If you have a marketing story to tell, case history, concept to propose or a memoir, give a shout. I’ll get right back to you. I am: dennyhatch@yahoo.com

You Are Invited to Join the Discussion!

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

#72 A Great Physician’s Marketing Brilliance!

#72 – Tuesday, October 1, 2019

http://dennyhatch.blogspot.com/2019/10/72-great-physicians-marketing-brilliance.html
 

Posted by Denny Hatch

A Great Physician’s Marketing Brilliance!
Gary Dorshimer, M.D.

On December 7, 1992 Peggy and I took over Target Marketing Magazine in Philly. We had company insurance and early on I had a skin problem on my scalp. I forget the medical group. The waiting room was a circus but after a long wait, I was quickly eyeballed by a doctor who determined it to be ringworm and shunted me over to a p.a. (physician’s assistant). She prescribed skin cream.
     The skin problem got worse.
     We found a top dermatologist and I sat for a scraping from my scalp. The next day her office called to say the problem was not ringworm.
    I had shingles.
     Oops.

The Wonderful Gary Dorshimer
I forget who suggested Gary Dorshimer, but he came highly recommended. Associated with Pennsylvania Hospital, Gary also had two other gigs weekends and evenings: attending physician to the Philadelphia Eagles football team and the Flyers hockey team.
     I particularly liked the idea of having access to the team doctor of a major sports franchise. His client is entrusting him with the health and safety of patients with multi-million-dollar contracts in a billion-dollar industry.
     A physician who mistakes shingles for ringworm need not apply.

The Original Practice
     Gary and his associates ran the practice near my Center City home out of two-story building on tiny Delancey Street steps away from Pennsylvania Hospital. It was a warren of little offices and examining rooms. The large central waiting area was invariably jammed with patients of all ages. There was plenty to read while waiting and the waits were usually long.
     Gary’s practice was a bit of a nightmare. Phones went unanswered and prescriptions ran out. I got used to walking over in person to make an appointment or get a prescription refilled.
     Of course there were waits to see him, but Gary always got around to us, spent adequate time with us, kept us healthy, made flawless diagnoses and made referrals to top specialists. 
     Above all, Gary radiates cool competence. We absolutely trust him with our lives.

A Surprise in Our Mailbox
     A personalized letter arrived from Gary Dorshimer. He was leaving the group to start a Concierge Practice. I was filled with dread.
     Concierge practice? What zat? Is it for rich people? If I opt out, will we be kicked out of the practice? After all, we were now pensioners on Medicare.
     The order device was an invitation to a wine and cheese gathering to be held in America’s very first hospital—founded by Benjamin Franklin—the elegant 1755 Pennsylvania Hospital building designed by legendary architect William Strickland.
     We would get the details of this “concierge” practice first hand.



At the gathering we had a glass of wine and gawked at the architecture, artworks and savored being in a place of history.
    Then Dr. Dorshimer came to the podium.

The Conundrum of Private Health Care
Gary’s deeply personal story was an eye opener. At Penn Medicine, precise record keeping is demanded.
     The practice had grown so huge he was working all the time—at his computer late into the evening and very early in the mornings before going to work. Plus, of course, the additional sports medicine practice nights and weekends.
     We chatted briefly with Mrs. Dorshimer who said Gary had no life. She saw him at the dinner table, whereupon he went to his computer to deal with record keeping. She was thrilled with the concierge change.

A Sea Change
Gary felt this was no way to practice medicine. The solution was a “concierge practice” that promised personal care, far greater availability and quick response times to medical needs.
     We would continue with our regular health insurance as before, plus an annual membership fee.
     If we opted not to be part of the new service, we could continue on as before but basically minus Gary. The physicians and staff in his existing practice are world-class.
     But we wanted Gary.
     A single answer during the Q&A session instantly sold us.
     “But what happen if I need to talk to you,” a gentleman asked, “and you are on the sidelines of an Eagles game?”
     “You have my cellphone number,” he replied.
     We signed on and could not be happier.

 A Scary Incident
     I had a serious medical problem in 2018 requiring an Emergency Room visit, several days in the ICU and more days in the hospital. The care included bringing in the head of a department, and a veritable army of highly trained, caring specialists who tended to me round-the-clock.” Gary frequently stopped by throughout the ordeal, conferring with the doctors and nurses, reassuring, upbeat.
     I saved the bills and retail costs ran well into six figures.

A Great Physician and Master Communicator
Gary keeps in touch, always reminding us he is there for us and he cares. Here’s a sampling of his emails:

[Date]  at 11:23 PM

To My Patients:
Several patients said they did not receive the e-mail from 3 weeks ago outlining the change in date and itinerary for the Travel With Your Doc trip to Berlin, now scheduled for late October.  
I wanted to make sure all had a chance to see the changes and respond, if you want to join me, by July 15th.
Please see the attached itinerary for the trip.  There will be flexibility for some free time and even flexibility with tours that we didn’t have on the trip to Cuba. 
I hope you can join me in another trip filled with history, art and music, and relaxation.
If you are interested in the next Travel with Your Doc trip, please contact
C---- H--- at my office (555-555-5555)
In Good Health,
Gary
= = = = = = = = = = = = = =
[Date] at 9:52 AM

To My Patients,

As a member benefit, having 24/7 access for questions and concerns via my cell phone and e-mail allows for us to have regular communication to attend to your questions and concerns between visits.  And a priority for me is to provide prompt responses to my patients regarding your questions and concerns.   

For best communication, I ask that, during weekday patient hours 8:00 AM-4:30 PM, you call the office directly, as receiving text and email messages while with other patients makes it difficult for me to give prompt responses.  By calling the office directly, my staff will be able to assist you more efficiently with all urgent and non-urgent calls at that time.  After hours and on weekends, I ask that you continue to reach me by calling my office 555-555-5555 and I will be paged by my answering service; or by calling my cell 555-555-5555 or by sending an email.  Please note that text message is the least efficient method of communication for me; email is the most efficient method for me to respond.  If your email is time sensitive, it would be fine to text me that you have sent an email to bring it to my attention sooner.

Thank you for helping me remain efficient in attending to your needs between your visits.

In Health,

Gary
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
[Date) at 2:13 PM
Dear Patients:
As many of you know, I am heading out tonight on vacation and will be back in the country in the evening of Tuesday September 3rd and back in the office Wednesday September 4th.  Dr. R---- K---- will be covering for me, so if you need anything, call the office number, (555-555-5555). During business hours the staff will help you, while after hours Dr. K---- will be paged.  Voice mail isn’t always reliable when traveling, so if you need to contact me, e-mail and texts will generally be checked daily.  
Enjoy your last week of August, when I hope a lot of you are also vacationing, and see you after Labor Day Holiday.
Sincerely
Gary
The Elegant Renewal Effort
 Many professionals with a subscription business might send a perfunctory reminder with an invoice—in print or, more likely digitally.
     Gary takes nothing for granted. His renewal letter arrives in the mailbox on handsome stationary with the Penn Medicine/Penn Personalized Care Letterhead. He re-sells. Reminds.
     Here is the text of Gary's personalized direct mail letter:


Dear Mr. Hatch,

As we move into the next year, l look forward to serving as your physician once again and am committed to providing you with excellent care and service.

Reflecting on this past year, my primary focus remained on your individual wellness needs and goals. We've created, in what we call our Live Well Series, several educational opportunities tailored to your health needs and interests.

In the next year, I will continue to develop our Live Well Series with programs on the 17th floor. We will provide you with additional resources for living your healthiest lifestyle and meeting your individualized goals. I welcome topics that would be of interest to you that we could discuss at after-hours programs.

As you approach the time for renewing membership in Penn Personalized Care, the benefits will continue to include:

• 24/7 phone, email or myPennMedicine access

• Same-day/next-day appointments.

• A personalized approach tailored to your individual health needs and overall wellness.

• The annual physical is the comer stone to educate and concentrate on ways to optimize your health.

• Live Well Series - patient conferences on current topics to educate and promote healthy living and wellness.

• Daily, including weekend, hospital care under my medical service at Pennsylvania Hospital, or daily on surgical services.

• Coverage when I am away by my colleagues, R------- K-----, MD, and R---- A----, MD, at Delancey Internal Medicine who I trust to offer excellent care in my absence.

• A private waiting room with light refreshments, WiFi and phone charging stations.

• Complimentary parking at both Penn Medicine Washington Square and Pennsylvania Hospital when coming for a visit on the 17th floor. Complimentary valet is only available at Pennsylvania Hospital.

• Dedicated staff to help with referrals, appointments, and all aspects of your medical care.

• Travel With Your Doc - a unique opportunity to travel with me and our PPC group to experience the health benefits of travel.

Enclosed you will find a Penn Personalized Care re-enrollment form. The annual fee will remain $2,500 per member for 2019-2020. Please complete the form and return to my office. If you have any questions or concerns about re-enrollment, please call my office at 215.555.5555

I would like to thank you for being a part of Penn Personalized Care. I look forward to the opportunity to continue to serve as your doctor and work with you to help you lead a healthier and happier life.

Sincerely, 

/s/ Gary W. Dorshimer, MD
Gary W Dorshimer, MD, FACP, FCPP
Section Chief, General Medicine, Pennsylvania Hospital
Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine
 
Takeaways to Consider
• Gary Dorshimer not only practices Personal Care but also personal marketing. In the examining room, in your hospital room and in his communications, his caring shines though. 

• Dr. Dorshimer is in touch with patients by email. However, when it comes to critical communication—such as the renewal—he uses postal mail. Postal mail is physical and must be dealt with by hand. It cannot be deleted with an inadvertent click.

• When I was running the newsletter WHO’S MAILING WHAT! and Target Marketing Magazine, I would get calls from readers every week asking, how often to contact customers.

•  Several software companies were offering programs to alert you that it was time to contact your customers.

• The answer: Don’t contact them just to contact them. Do it when you have something to say—a new product, service, a special offer.

• The Washington Square Pharmacy routinely calls to remind us a prescription is running out. Savvy service stations and car dealers will call their customers to remind them it’s time for an oil change, tire rotations and an inspection.

• As a member of Penn Personalized Care, every time I go into the office, I am made to feel special by the staff. 

• And, of course, Gary with his low key—and laser-like—concentration on me.

“Under promise and over deliver.” —Marilyn Black


Note to Readers: Peggy and I leave Saturday for vacation. Next blog post is scheduled for Tuesday, October 29th.  Thank you.


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Word count:2030



At age 15, Denny Hatch—as a lowly apprentice—wrote his first news release for a Connecticut summer theater. To his astonishment it ran verbatim in The Middletown Press. He was instantly hooked on writing. After a two-year stint in the U.S. Army (1958-60), Denny had nine jobs in his first 12 years in business. He was fired from five of them and went on to save two businesses and start three others. One of his businesses—WHO’S MAILING WHAT! newsletter and archive service founded in 1984—revolutionized the science of how to measure the success of competitors’ direct mail. In the past 55 years he has been a book club director, magazine publisher, advertising copywriter/designer, editor, journalist and marketing consultant. He is the author of four published novels and seven books on business and marketing.

CONTACT

dennyhatch@yahoo.com

Note to Readers:  
May I send you an alert when each new blog is posted? If so, kindly give me the okay by sending your First Name, Last Name and e-mail to dennyhatch@yahoo.com. I guarantee your personal information will not be shared with anyone at any time for any reason. I look forward to being in touch!


IF YOU HAVE TROUBLE POSTING A COMMENT… Write Me!
Google owns Blogspot.com and this Comment Section. If you do not have a Google account, contact me directly and I will happily post your comment with a note that this is per your request. Thank you and do keep in touch.  dennyhatch@yahoo.com

Invitation to Marketers and Direct Marketers: 
Guest Blog Posts Are Welcome. 
If you have a marketing story to tell, case history, concept to propose or a memoir, give a shout. I’ll get right back to you. I am: dennyhatch@yahoo.com

You Are Invited to Join the Discussion!